Urbanization Projection Model

The urbanization projection model projects changes in the proportion of population living in urban areas. It extends and modifies the UN urbanization projection model and can produce up to 9 alternative trajectories of the urban growth for regions at global, national, and subnational levels for the short, medium, and long-term futures (from base year to 2100).

The projection for the region of study is based on historical urbanization and population records of its reference regions. Reference regions are selected based on the similarity of their historical urbanization patterns to the current trend of the region of study.

To account for the possible variations in urban growth across different phases, the model takes a two-stage projection approach. By doing so, the model produces a wide range of plausible urbanization trends to assess uncertainties and develop alternative socioeconomic scenarios.

The model currently uses the latest revision of the United Nations world urbanization and population prospects for selecting reference regions at the national level (countries), as well as historical urbanization and population records of US states, Chinese provinces, and Indian states for selecting reference regions at the subnational level (subnational territories of these countries). The subnational projection database is being extended for subnational territories of other countries, including Mexico, Pakistan, Brazil, and Egypt.

Moreover, the user can use the interface and import their own datasets for subnational territories of their country of interest after following some formats to produce projections accordingly.