Population Projection Model

The population projection model is a scenario-based multi-state cohort component model that produces yearly projections of population by age and gender for all subnational territories of the country of study. The model is developed using the multiregional demographic methods that simultaneously and consistently project population changes for all subnational territories.

It starts with the base year population and demographic schedules and incorporates assumptions on future changes in fertility, mortality, internal migration flows (in-migration and out-migration), and international migration to inform projections and unfold population dynamics specific to each subnational territory.

This model currently includes age and gender-specific population projection results for each US state, consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The current dashboard visually investigates changes in total population sizes, age structures, number of births and deaths, as well as number of international migrants and bilateral internal migrants specific to each state and consistent with the SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5 scenarios.