Spatial Population Downscaling Model

The spatial population downscaling model generates projections of spatially explicit representations of population (i.e., population grid) at 1 KM resolution specific to each subnational territory (currently U.S. states) at ten-year intervals by the end of the century. It is developed based on an improved spatial gravity model and downscales projected total populations of a subnational territory from the population projection model to its constituent grid cells.

Population grids are a vital tool for resource allocation, land-cover/land-use change modeling, and human-environment dynamics. They contribute directly to exposure and vulnerability evaluation in relation to environmental hazards.

The current dashboard allows visual investigation of the spatial distribution of rural/urban/total population consistent with the SSP2, SSP3 and SSP5 scenarios for each subnational territory.

References

Spatially Explicit Global Population Scenarios Consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Jones, B. and O’Neill, B.C. 2016. Environmental Research Letters 11(8). doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084003.U.S. State-level Projections of the Spatial Distribution of Population Consistent with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Zoraghein, H. and O’Neill, B.C. 2020. Sustainability 12(8):3374. doi:10.3390/SU12083374.

A spatial population downscaling model for integrated human-environment analysis in the United States. Zoraghein, H. and O’Neill, B.C. 2020. Demographic Research 43:1563–1606. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26967851

Data Supplement: U.S. State-Level Projections of the Spatial Distribution of
Population Consistent with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. (Version v0.1.0) [Data set]. Zoraghein, H. and O’Neill, B. C. 2020.